Black Swans
Jan. 30, 2008
I'm about half way through Nassim Taleb's best-selling book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1201724988&sr=8-1">The Black Swan.</a> My friend Dave is a devotee is Taleb's and has even started a <a href="http://datamineshaft.com/blog/">blog</a> in a similar style. I've found lots of interesting things to think about, but I wish that he had some kind of citations in his work, since I have no idea what he's just making up to bolster his position and what is based on real studies. In addition, I know I've heard a lot of the more interesting ideas elsewhere, but not as concisely presented, so it would be nice to see more of what influenced his thinking. Regardless, I especially enjoyed his description of the many logical fallacies we humans commit and I already find myself more aware of their presence in everyday life. He's also totally spot-on about the failure of experts in many fields to predict the future. (This is something Steven Levitt mentions in Freakonomics as well).
The president of my company actually met Taleb back when he traded in the S&P options pits. I mentioned that I was reading my book and was informed that Taleb came in full of bravado about how everyone else was trading incorrectly, and then subsequently blew out in two months. I guess that proves his point about prediction, but it probably isn't the result he was looking for.
Sarah: 2008-01-30 15:26:02
When are you putting up new pictures?!?! I'm waiting!
Matt: 2008-01-30 18:11:53
I'm not in charge of new picture placement. I will forward you on to the relevant department.
Dave Y.: 2008-02-19 15:46:56
Hey Matt, thanks for linking me. I'm glad to hear you're enjoying the book. Taleb admits that his book has some anecdotes and theorizing. The reason for the first is probably to increase the strength of the narrative. Ironically, he says it "takes a narrative to displace a narrative".
The reason for the second is probably to troll other people, at least in part. He said putting in bits of theory and fiction makes his book harder to categorize and even place in the book store, whoch is precisely what he wants. It makes it harder for the narrative fallacy to hit his readers.
I've been reading a new book that's almost as interesting: "The How of Happiness". It is basically a scientific approach to being happy. What's funny is that some of the advice on being happy directly conflicts with Taleb.
For example, the book suggests that finding meaning in events will make you happier. This is precisely one of the origins of the narrative fallcy and confirmation bias. Seeing events as being under your control is another way to be happier. Yet this is certainly the basis of the ludic fallacy and others.
I strongly believe both books are right. So are "skeptical empiricists" such as Taleb less happy people? Though he claims otherwise, chances are the answer is yes. He points to the lives of skeptics and suggests how exciting their lives were, but the truth is that people like David Hume were probably happiest when living day to day and not focusing on being skeptical. (And playing billiards and writing histroy books.)
There's a fine balance between being skeptical and being happy, then. I'm still working on a good compromise. I can't get over the statistic I read that married, religious Republicans are remarkably more happy than their counterparts. Skeptics, oftentimes, are none of these three things.
In the meantime, I have focused more on all three as a result. (Sorry about not adding links, I typed this up on my Blackberry.)
Dave Y.: 2008-02-19 15:51:12
Also, check out Taleb's site if you want to hear more about what drives him. He has some excellent interviews posted there as links. You may also want to check out his other book, "Fooled by Randomness", which is very much a companion book to "The Black Swan".